Godshall Chronicles 05/30/18

THR Business (Cigarette volume plunges as more smokers switch to low risk alternatives)

Altria reports 5.5% decline in US cigarette industry volume in 1Q18 (when adjusted for inventory movements), a 7.0% decline in PM USA cigarette volume, a 0.1% decline in USSTC smokeless tobacco volume, and a 30% in increase in Nu Mark e-vapor volume

Philip Morris International reports 5.3% worldwide cigarette volume decline in 1Q18 (from 173.5 billion to 164.2 billion cigarettes) including an 18.3% decline in East Asia, reports 116% volume increase in heated tobacco units (from 4.4 billion to 9.5 billion units) compared to 1Q17, but a decline from 4Q17.

CNBC Mad Money’s Jim Cramer: Vaping decimating cigarette industry and could get worse

PMI holds 2018 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, confronts PMI’s $30 billion value decline after issuing its 1Q18 Report, reiterates PMI’s future is IQOS and other low risk alternatives, details IQOS market data in Japan and IQOS sales increases in many other countries

Imperial Brands reports 3.7% US tobacco volume decline and 2.1% worldwide tobacco volume decline in 4Q17-1Q18, reports launch of myblu in US, UK, France, Germany and Russia

Japan Tobacco reports 15.5% cigarette industry volume decline in Japan in 1Q18 (since 1Q17) and a 27% cigarette industry volume decline in Japan since 1Q16; reports 15% cigarette volume decline for JT (since 1Q17) and a 28% decline since 1Q16 (as many Japanese smokers have switched to heat-not-burn products; reports 7.3% cigarette volume increase for JTI outside Japan (due largely to cigarette brand acquisitions), and an overall 2.2% cigarette volume decline for JTI outside Japan (absent the brand acquisitions).

Japan Tobacco reports 13.2% cigarette volume decline in April

Korean Tobacco reports 10.7% cigarette industry volume decline in Korea in 1Q18 (from 16.8B to 15.0B sticks) as more Korean smokers switch to low risk heat-not-burn alternatives

Swedish Match reports 4% snus volume increase in Sweden in 1Q18, 5% snus volume increase in Norway, 3% adjusted chewing tobacco volume decline in US

Steve Birr: JUUL popularity drives six percent decline in US cigarette sales

THR opponents reveal that sales of IQOS in Italy increased from .01% of entire tobacco market in 2015 to .11% in 2016, to .67% in 2017 and is now approaching the market of cigars

RJ Reynolds announces nationwide (US) voluntary recall of Vuse Vibe power units after receiving 10 consumer complaints of overheating

Steve Birr: Alternative smoking technologies are driving ‘sustained double-digit’ declines in cigarette sales

THR History

Lynn Kozlowski reveals how/why the moralistic cigarette protecting anti-THR crusade began in America in the 1980s after UST target marketed low risk Skoal Bandits to cigarette smokers harmreductionjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12954-018-0228-8

THR Surveillance

Survey finds 1 million French quit smoking cigarettes from 2016 to 2017, and that many smokers switched to vaping

Ali Anderson: Record smoking lows kept quiet, claims expert (Godshall cited)

Farsalinos et al study finds 62.2% of current vapers in Attica (Greece) are former smokers, 37.6% are current smokers, and just 0.2% are never smokers; finds 5% of Atticans vape; finds 39.5% of Attacans correctly believe vaping is less harmful than smoking, 34.4% inaccurately believe vaping is just as or more harmful than smoking, and 17.8% don’t know.

THR Research

Ray Niaura: E-cigarette science and its relevance for regulatory actions and policy

Large prospective study (n=10,982) of 11 year old never smokers in UK finds, after 3 years:

– 13.9% reported “ever use” of an e-cig
– 2.4% reported “occasional use” of an e-cig
– 0.3% reported “daily use” of an e-cig


(But note this study never mentioned these critically important “daily” and “occasional” use findings, which coauthor Anthony Laverty privately sent to me, but rather combined the “occasional” and “daily” use data to form a new category deceptively called “current use”)

Steve Birr – Study: Teens who don’t smoke rarely use e-cigarettes regularly

UCSF study finds more frequent vaping by SF area adolescents who use “a customizable vapor product versus a JUUL, vape pen or other/unknown device”, challenging accusations about JUUL by CTFK, AAP, Legacy, Sen. Chuck Schumer, FDA’s Scott Gottlieb and the news media

Study finds primary school children (7-11 years) in Wales know more about vaping than US public health officials, health/medical groups, Congressional Democrats and the news media

Analysis of 2015-2016 NYTS data finds most teens overestimated e-cigarette and cigarette use among their peers, finds past 30 day teen vaping declined even though most teens believed teen vaping had increased (due to many false claims by DHHS, state/local health agencies, Big Pharma shills, Congressional Democrats and the anti-vaping fake news media)

Analysis of Texas teen survey data (by anti vaping activists) finds vapers who also use tobacco products experience more signs of nicotine dependence than exclusive vapers

Study finds adolescents who ever used an e-cig were significantly less likely (than adolescents who never used an e-cig) to worry about e-cig health risks, less likely to think e-cigs would cause them negative consequences, and less likely to believe e-cig use would lead to addiction.

Clinical trial finds 25% of smokers who used e-cigarettes remained cigarette free after 3 months (compared to just 10% of smokers who didn’t use e-cigarettes), also finds smokers who used e-cigarettes reduced their cigarette consumption.

Qualitative case study on vaping underscores the importance of differentiating between long-term, frequent, consistent use and more episodic, experimental and infrequent use

Carl Phillips – Science Lesson: Clinical trial evidence debunks the vaping impedes smoking cessation claim

Surveys of vape shop customers and shop staff in UK finds 84% of customers were current vapers (including 78% who quit smoking and 19% who were dual users), finds most vapers had reduced nicotine levels since beginning to vape, finds 90% of vape shop customers ask for information about quitting smoking, finds less most vape shops don’t provide smoking cessation information but 76% of vape shop staff reported feeling confident about discussing it.

Analysis of 2014 NHIS data finds people with cardiovascular disease who recently quit smoking and who recently attempted to quit smoking were significantly more likely to report e-cigarette use than current smokers who did not report a recent quit attempt.

Survey of cancer patients who use e-cigarettes finds 73% never discussed their use of e-cigs with an oncologist, finds patients characterized e-cigarettes as less addictive, less expensive, less stigmatizing and less likely to impact their cancer treatment than smoking cigarettes.

Analysis of FDA PATH data finds 12.1% of adult dual users of cigarettes and vapor products in 2013 had discontinued cigarette use by 2015, and that 48.8% of all adult e-cigarette users in 2013 had discontinued e-cigarette use by 2015

Analysis of FDA PATH data finds higher frequency of vaping by smokers was associated with lower cigarette consumption and dependence symptoms, finds vaping flavored products was associated with lower cigarette consumption.

Analysis of FDA PATH data finds smokers who vaped one non-tobacco non-menthol flavored vapor product were 2.5 times more likely to have reduced or quit smoking in the past year than were smokers who didn’t use e-cigarettes, while smokers who vaped multiple non-tobacco non-menthol flavored e-liquids were 3 times more likely to have reduced or quit smoking.  But author urges public health professionals to discourage use of flavored vapor products, and to only use so-called “evidence based” tobacco treatment methods (aka Big Pharma drugs)

Study: New Zealand’s government and health organizations collaborate with vapers and smokers to reduce smoking (in sharp contrast with governments and health groups in most countries)

Carl Phillips: New Zealand study of vapers may change policy

Study finds inaccurate risk estimates about snus by Norwegian undergraduates increase after reading government information about snus (i.e. anti-snus propaganda), finds inaccurate risk estimates about snus decline after reading a newspaper article whose headline claimed snus was 90% less harmful than smoking

Study confirms that levels of major carcinogens are markedly reduced in the emissions of the analyzed HNB product in relation to the conventional tobacco cigarettes

PMI modelling exercise estimates FDA approval of MRTP for PMI’s IQOS will reduce smoking

THR Education

Clive Bates – The urge to ban: 10 questions to ask first (Bates’ 4/30/2018 presentation in DC)

Ken Warner: How to Think – Not Feel – About Tobacco Harm Reduction

Brad Rodu: Poison Control Centers’ Data Puts E-Cigarette Exposure in Perspective

Public Health England and New Nicotine Alliance films

Passive Vaping: A guide for parrots

Colin Mendelsohn: Electronic Cigarettes in Physician Practice (recommended for all physicians)

Doctors urged to recommend e-cigarettes to help smokers quit habit

Viviane Callier – E-cigarettes: A win or loss for public health?

THR Conferences

2018 Global Forum on Nicotine speakers announced, to be held June 14-16 in Warsaw

Lynn Kozlowski presents: Looking closely at prevention and protection policies for youth use of e-cigarettes and tobacco products

2018 US E-Cigarette Summit (where one American who has opposed FDA’s Deeming Rule for vapor products, Iowa AG Tom Miller, was invited to speak, while many vapor prohibitionists and propagandists were invited) posts videos and power points of presentations

Cruel and Unusual Punishment

CDC keeps hawking ineffective and less-than-safe Big Pharma drugs and ineffective smoking cessation counseling for addicted smokers at mental health & drug treatment facilities (and still refuses to endorse low risk vapor or smokeless tobacco alternatives for addicted smokers).

Adverse Events

NY Times hypes first death caused by exploding vapor battery(ies), fails to appropriately compare it to the 7,600 fires and 350 fire/burn deaths caused by smoking each year in the US

CNN invents new term “wet lung”, hypes Pediatrics article whose authors allege vaping caused hypersensitivity pneumonitis in a patient who had vaped for several weeks

Ali Anderson – Top Doctor: Wet Lung Vaping Story “Nonsense”

More Junk Science, Propaganda and Lies

Brad Rodu: Tobacco research is not immune to scientific scrutiny

Brad Rodu: Pediatrics editors claim compliance with – but instead violate publication ethics guidelines

Brad Rodu: Pediatrics journal ignores its stated editorial standards

Brad Rodu: Another UC San Francisco gateway claim, based on tiny numbers

Carl Phillips: Pediatrics journal tries to cover up errors after publishing refuted Glantz article

Carl Phillips: Researchers call for retraction of Glantz gateway effect paper

NEJM publishes rigged RCT study that offered $600 to smokers to use free Chantix, nicotine gums, lozenges and/or patches, and gave smokers one brand of obsolete e-cigs but no money; finds smokers who were offered $600 and given free Pharma drugs were more likely to quit than those who were given one brand of free obsolete e-cigs, but finds smokers who were given the free e-cigs were twice as likely to quit as smokers were just given free Pharma drugs.

AP medical writer Marilynn Marchioni promotes rigged RCT study that offered smokers $600 to use free Big Pharma cessation drugs compared to smokers who were given free obsolete e-cigs

Carl Phillips refutes and eviscerates NEJM published junk RCT study that used crappy e-cigs

Clive Bates refutes NEJM published junk RCT study that used obsolete e-cigs

Brad Rodu: Smoking Cessation Trials and Tribulations (analyzes rigged RCT study in NEJM)

DHHS funded vapor and vaping prohibitionists continue to misrepresent the scientific and empirical evidence about vaping, protect cigarettes and threaten lives of smokers and vapers

PATH study finds US teens who had ever used marijuana in 2013/14 were far more likely (46.4% vs 5.1%) than teens who never used marijuana to have ever used an e-cigarette, but authors exclude all ever users of marijuana from baseline of study, then claim the study found that ever using an e-cig use is associated with higher subsequent use of marijuana.

Note that analysis of NSDUH data for 12-21 year olds similarly found that 54.7% of current cannabis users also reported smoking a cigarette in the past 30 days

Florida funded anti vaping activists confuse and conflate very low risk vaping with deadly cigarette smoking, very low risk smokeless tobacco use, and low risk cigar and hookah use, advocate preventing teen vaping (even though doing so can increase teen cigarette smoking).

Swedish THR opponents lie about and demand ban on Swedish Match’s Zyn nicotine pouches

Washington Post hypes junk studies on so-called third hand smoke (i.e. tobacco smoke residue left on walls, ceilings, carpets, furniture, ventilation systems, which poses no harm to humans, but doesn’t smell pleasant) to confuse and scare readers

Abstract presented at vapor prohibitionist ATS conference finds vapers have higher COPD rate than non vapers (but failed to admit the vast majority of vapers were current or former smokers, and the vast majority of non vapers were never smokers); FDA/NIH financed Glantz touts junk study to falsely insinuate that vaping causes COPD.

Junk Scientist

DHHS funded UCSF junk scientist Stan Glantz faces second sexual harassment lawsuit

Carl Phillips: Tobacco Controllers again silent about Glantz misconduct allegations


Bill Godshall
Executive Director
Smokefree Pennsylvania

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