May 23, 2018

Godshall Chronicles 02/04/18

US THR Business

Altria reports adjusted 4.5% decline in US cigarette industry volume in 4Q17, including a 6.5% volume decline for PM USA; reports adjusted 4% decline in 2017 US cigarette industry volume, including a 5% volume decline for PM USA (as increasingly more smokers switch to vaping).

US Vaping Ignorance Keeps Increasing (due to lies and vapor sales bans by DHHS since 2009)

NCI’s 2017 HINTS found 55.6% of American adults inaccurately believe vaping is just as or more harmful than cigarette smoking, just 4% correctly know vaping is much less harmful.

In contrast, the 2013 HINTS found 39.8% inaccurately believed vaping is just as or more harmful than cigarette smoking, while 9.4% correctly knew vaping is much less harmful.

Thanks to Clive Bates for exposing this.

Meanwhile, a new British survey finds 43% of adults know vaping is less harmful than cigarettes

National Academies Report

FDA contracted National Academies report promotes FDA’s vapor Deeming Ban, but admits:

– vaping is far less harmful than smoking cigarettes, and

– the health of vapers will worsen if they switch back to smoking cigarettes.

Unfortunately, the irreconcilably biased and conflicted NA committee engaged in research misconduct by excluding and ignoring all evidence that has consistently confirmed:

– daily and past month cigarette smoking rates by teens declined >50% as vaping increased,

– exponentially more teens smoked cigarettes before vaping (than who vaped before smoking),

– virtually all frequent nicotine vapers have been and are either current or former smokers,

– vaping has helped millions of smokers quit, and helped millions more reduce smoking, and

– FDA’s 2016 Deeming Rule threatens the lives of several million vapers and 40 million smokers (by banning all new vapor sales and truthful health claims about vaping on 8/8/2016, by banning sales of ALL lifesaving vapor products on 8/8/2022, and by allowing FDA to ban them sooner).

False claim in National Academies embargoed press release generates fake headlines and news

“Among youth — who use e-cigarettes at higher rates than adults do — there is substantial evidence that e-cigarette use increases the risk of transitioning to smoking conventional cigarettes.”

Jill Daly: Evidence on health effects of e-cigarettes is mixed, expert panel says (Godshall cited)

A longtime critic of research that labels e-cigarettes and vaping a gateway to tobacco smoking for young people, Bill Godshall, executive director of Smokefree Pennsylvania, attacked the committee’s report, saying, “This is a repeat of all the junk science that’s been done already.”

A proponent of vaping as a path to quit tobacco smoking, Mr. Godshall said, “There are a thousand times more people who have quit smoking using vaping products than people going from vapers to cigarettes.”

He added that studies have not asked young people if they had smoked before vaping, only if they had smoked a cigarette at least once after previously vaping.

He suggested the findings might have been different if there was a harm-reduction expert on the committee. He also said randomized, controlled trials, while accepted as the highest quality in testing medical treatments, can’t reproduce the experience of vaping.

“There are over 3 million e-cigarette products registered with the FDA,” he said.

“The average vaper has switched from dozens of vaper products since they’ve quit smoking,” he said. Surveys show the success of vaping, he said, adding that surveys show most teens aren’t vaping with nicotine.

Carl Phillips: National Academies report on e-cigs just what the FDA ordered (Godshall agrees)

Carl Phillips: Why was the National Academies report so wrong about the gateway effect?

Christopher Snowdon: These products are safer than cigarettes – – – why don’t the regulators want to know?

Mike Siegel: A new report shows that, at this time, there are no known long-term health effects

Big Pharma shills CTFK and ALA urge FDA to once again ban all e-cigarette sales to US adults in August 2018 (by citing bogus junk science claims in FDA funded NA report)

FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb defends FDA’s cigarette protecting Deeming Rule (that banned sales of all new vapor products and all truthful health claims on 8/8/2016, and bans sales of all other vapor products on 8/8/2022) “We need to put novel products like e-cigarettes through an appropriate series of regulatory gates to fully evaluate their risks and maximize their potential benefits”, touts junk science claim from FDA contracted NA report “kids who experiment with e-cigarettes are more likely to try smoking,”

FDA CTP twitter touts junk science claim in FDA contracted NA report that “e-cigarette use increases risks of ever using combustible cigarettes” among youth and young adults.

US Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) repeats lies about vaping, hypocritically protects cigarettes while criticizing cigarette companies, once again urges FDA to ban vapor products.

“I share the deep concerns of public health professionals who, once again, have concluded that e-cigarettes pose significant risks to the public, including unknown levels of toxins, dangerous side-effects from secondhand ‘smoke,’ and — particularly for young people — heightened potential for addiction,”

“FDA must fulfill its commitment to safeguard public health and use its full authority under the Tobacco Control Act to prioritize public safety over Big Tobacco profit.”

THR Research

Carl Phillips: Science Lesson: Model shopping – The real problem with epidemiology (describes some of the many ways FDA/NIH funded anti-vaping activists create junk science)

Carl Phillips: New study shows public misplaces its trust in institutions on vaping issues

Survey of NZ vapers finds main reason for trying vapor products is to stop or reduce smoking

Study finds vaping less harmful to lung fluids than smoking

THR Education

Medical experts offered to debate Canada’s anti-vaping groups – but they all refused

Eli Lehrer: E-cigarettes are what the doctor ordered

Cigarette Research

Carl Phillips: Are low nicotine cigarettes less likely to cause cancer?

Meta analysis finds smoking one cigarette per day increases heart disease risk in males by half as much as smoking 20 cigarettes per day (but almost nobody smokes one cigarette per day for decades, and most people who claim to smoke one cigarette per day actually smoke more).

FDA Deeming Rule Litigation

Pacific Legal Foundation and vape shops sue FDA in three federal courts (DC, Texas, Minnesota) to challenge FDA Deeming Rule

Eric Boehm: Nonsensical FDA ban on vaping products faces 3 new legal challenges

Guy Bentley: FDA sued over ‘unconstitutional’ rule that threatens e-cigarette businesses

More new stories on Pacific Legal Foundation’s lawsuits against FDA

Philip Morris International’s MRTP Application to FDA for Marlboro HeatSticks and IQOS

Bill Godshall summarizes January 24/25 FDA TPSAC meeting on PMI’s MRTP for Marlboro Heatsticks and IQOS

Bill Godshall’s presentation to TPSAC (actually to FDA CTP Director Mitch Zeller) is below.

I’m Bill Godshall, founder and executive director of SmokeFree Pennsylvania, which has campaigned to reduce cigarette smoking since 1990 by reducing secondhand smoke exposures, reducing cigarette marketing to youth, holding cigarette companies accountable, and increasing cigarette taxes. 

Since 2004, we’ve also informed the public that cigarettes cause >99% of all tobacco attributable morbidity, disability, mortality and healthcare costs, and that smokefree alternatives are below 2 on the Continuum of Risk in which cigarettes are 100 and NRT products are 1. 

We’ve also advocated keeping ALL low risk smokefree alternatives legal to manufacture, market and use, which is why we opposed the Tobacco Control Marlboro Monopoly Act that was negotiated and agreed to in 2004 by Philip Morris, RWJF financed Matt Myers and then-GSK lobbyist Mitch Zeller, which banned sales of new smokeless tobacco products more than a decade ago.     

We also opposed Josh Sharfstein’s unlawful cigarette protecting 2009 FDA e-cigarette import ban, and Mitch Zeller’s 2016 cigarette protecting Deeming Rule that banned sales of all new vapor products 18 months ago, banned truthful health claims for vapor products, and bans all vapor products in the near future (unless the Deeming Rule is significantly changed).    

For disclosure, neither I nor SmokeFree Pennsylvania have ever received any funding the US DHHS or from any tobacco, drug or vapor company. So no financial conflicts.

Recent studies indicate Marlboro HeatSticks & IQOS are about 90% less harmful than cigarettes.  But far more extensive scientific and empirical evidence has consistently found snus, moist snuff, dissolvables and vapor products are about 99% less harmful than cigarettes.

So why is FDA considering approving MRTPs for Philip Morris Marlboro products that appear 90% less harmful than cigarettes after FDA banned the sale of vapor products that appear 99% less harmful than cigarettes, have already helped millions of Americans quit smoking (something FDA & CDC have refused to acknowledge), and have helped cut youth smoking in half since 2010?

And why has FDA refused to accept 367 PMTAs, but is considering PMTAs for Marlboro HeatSticks?

A key reason is because Philip Morris and Altria spent hundreds of millions of dollars lobbying to enact the 2009 Tobacco Control Act and to impose FDA’s 2016 Deeming Rule because both policies protect Marlboro’s Cigarette Monopoly and Marlboro HeatSticks from market competition by thousands of small smokeless tobacco and vapor companies that cannot afford $100 million to submit PMTA and MRTP applications.

If FDA approves MRTPs and PMTAs for Marlboro HeatSticks, PM and Altria will spend hundreds of millions of dollars more to protect their new Marlboro HeatStick Monopoly by lobbying to keep vapor products banned, including the Cole-Bishop bill in Congress.

Before creating another multi billion dollar Marlboro monopoly, the FDA should rescind its disastrous Deeming Rule that bans millions of lifesaving vapor products, and begin to truthfully inform the public that ALL smokefree tobacco/nicotine alternatives are far less harmful than cigarettes.

Clive Bates: Ten tweets about FDA TPSAC’s hearing on IQOS

ACSH’s Hank Campbell’s testimony to FDA TPSAC in IQOS

Brad Rodu: Japan’s IQOS experience suggests product could reduce US cigarette consumption

Many FDA funded THR opponents at UCSF urge FDA to reject PM’s MRTP for IQOS

As expected, TPSAC rejected most of FDA’s questions about Marlboro HeatSticks & IQOS

Democrat Senators Dick Durbin and Richard Blumenthal (who have lied about vaping and lobbied FDA to ban lifesaving vapor products since 2011) denounce PMI’s clinical trials for IQOS before reading PMI’s research (article is at bottom of weblink page)

PMI press release responds to FDA TPSAC’s votes against IQOS and Marlboro HeatSticks

More FDA

FDA hosts 1/26/2017 public hearing to further promote/subsidize more Big Pharma NRT drugs despite NRT’s dismal 5% smoking cessation success rate (comments accepted until 2/15/2018)

FDA halts nicotine experiment after four monkeys die

Judge may force FDA to speed up graphic cigarette warnings

FDA falsely claims its ads for “The Real Cost” prevented 350,000 kids from smoking


Alex Azar sworn in as DHHS Secretary


CDC Director Brenda Fitzgerald resigns due to stock ownership, including Japan Tobacco

CDC issues state specific 2014/15 CPS data for adult tobacco product use in different states, but protects cigarettes by conflating “some day” use of exponentially lower risk vapor and smokeless tobacco products, and lower risk cigars and pipe tobacco with “every day” cigarette smoking.

Outrageously advocates abstinence-only zero-tolerance policies for low risk products.

“Differences in tobacco product use across states underscore the importance of implementing proven population-level strategies to reduce tobacco use and expanding these strategies to cover all forms of tobacco marketed in the United States.  Such strategies could include comprehensive smoke-free policies, tobacco product price increases, anti-tobacco mass media campaigns, and barrier-free access to clinical smoking cessation resources.”

CDC finds cigarette brand preferences among teens are very similar to adult preferences, but CDC fails to acknowledge that key fact, instead deceives readers to inaccurately believe advertisements targeted to adult smokers (mostly on price) cause and sustain youth smoking.

Smokeless Tobacco and Vapor Litigation

USSTC serves dozens of subpoenas seeking information after Tony Gwynn’s family sued USSTC claiming its smokeless tobacco caused Gwynn’s cancer

Wrigley’s chewing gum and candy company sues Get Wrecked Juices for violating it IP rights by selling e-liquid with similar brand names


Washington House Finance Committee approves bill (HB 2165) to impose a 60% tax on vapor products, referred to Appropriations Cmte.

CASAA urges WA vapers to oppose HB 2165

New Mexico Senate Education Cmte approves bill (SB 25) to increase cigarette tax from $1.66 to $3.16/pack, increase OTP tax from 25% to 76% of wholesale price, and impose 76% tax on vapor products; referred to Senate Corporations and Transportation Cmte.

Utah bill (HB 88) would protect cigarettes by imposing an 86% wholesale tax on vapor products

New York bill (S7335) sponsored by Democrat David Carlucci would impose a $.25/ml tax on e-liquid (i.e. $30 tax for a 120 ml bottle of e-liquid sold at vape shops, but <$.25 tax for a cigalike e-cig sold by tobacco companies), which would put virtually all vape shops in NY out of business, as vapers in NY would just buy tax free e-liquid from out-of-state Internet retailers

NJ bill (S1186) by THR opponent Democrat Joe Vitale would increase moist snuff tax from $.75 to $2.25/ounce and increase OTP tax from 30% to 90% of wholesale price (but wouldn’t tax vapor products), would appropriate tax revenue for anti THR propaganda and policy advocacy.

Altria lobbies VA legislature to reduce taxes on FDA approved MRTPs

Nebraska bill (LB 1117) would increase cigarette tax from $.64 to $2.14/pack, increase snuff tax from $.44 to $1/ounce, increase OTP tax from 20% to 45% (but wouldn’t tax vapor products).

Guy Bentley: Why DC’s proposed $2-a-pack increase in cigarette taxes is wrong

Age 21

Washington bills (SB 5025, HB 1054, SB 6048) would increase minimum sales age for tobacco/vapor products to 21

Illinois bills (HB 4297 & SB 2332) would increase minimum age for tobacco/vapor sales to 21

Utah bill (HB  296) would increase minimum age for tobacco/vapor sales from 19 to 21

Indiana bill (HB 1380) to increase minimum age for tobacco/vapor sales to 21 approved by House Health Cmte after cigarette tax hike removed; referred to House Ways and Means Cmte.

South Dakota bill (HB 1250) would increase minimum age for tobacco & vapor sales to 21

Idaho bill would increase minimum age for tobacco and vapor sales to 21

Indiana bill (HB 1380) to increase minimum age for tobacco/vapor sales to 21 dies in IN House

Mississippi House Cmte rejects bill (HB 835) to raise age for tobacco/vapor sales to 21

Identical Tennessee bills (HB 1706 & SB 1636) would increase minimum age for tobacco and vapor sales from 18 to 19 years. (Bills introduced by Ds, but Rs control TN House & Senate)

Smoking/Vaping Ban

Alaska bill (SB 63) would ban smoking and smokefree vaping in workplaces

CASAA asks AK vapers to urge AK lawmakers to remove vapor products from SB 63

EU Snus Ban Court Challenge

Christopher Snowdon: These products are safer than cigarettes – – – why don’t the regulators want to know? (Godshall recommends this article)

Christopher Snowdon: Snus goes to court again

Snus Use Surpasses Cigarette Smoking in Norway

Statistics Norway details 50% decline (from 22% to 11%) in daily cigarette smoking rate since 2007 as use of very low risk snus increased

Not to be snuffed at: more Norwegians turn from cigarettes to snuff


PMI’s Mark MacGregor says PMI plans to stop selling cigarettes in the UK by 2030

Christopher Snowdon: Vaping Solutions; An easy Brexit win


Japan to severely restrict use of IQOS and other heat-not-burn products, but rejects prior promises to ban smoking in workplaces and public places.


Indian government urges its Supreme Court to ban tobacco companies, which could create huge black markets


Indonesia government plans to protect cigarettes by imposing 57% tax on lifesaving vapor products


Singapore ban on sales, use and possession of e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and pipe tobacco goes into effect (as the sales, use and possession of deadly cigarettes remain legal).


Israel warns tourists that it is illegal to possess or use vapor products in Thailand, and that violators can be arrested, fined and imprisoned.


Norm Bour: The Malaysian Vape Market Gets Decimated

Foundation for a Smoke-Free World

Clueless anti-tobacco-industry deans at 17 Schools of Public Health (including Bloomberg financed Hopkins) denounce Foundation for a Smoke-Free World, say they won’t seek or accept foundation funding, intolerantly denounce very low risk THR products if they are sold by a company that also sells cigarettes, advocate counterproductive tobacco prohibition policies.

FCTC/McCabe’s Jonathan Liberman defames Derek Yach and the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World, while failing to admit that the FCTC has protected cigarettes because WHO has abused it to lobbying to ban very low risk smokefree products that have helped millions quit smoking.

Big Pharma / Bloomberg funded CTFK repeats lies about Foundation for a Smoke-Free World (just as CTFK has lied about and lobbied to ban low risk smokefree products for 2 decades)

Harm Reduction Hypocrisy

Former FDA Deputy Commissioner Josh Sharfstein (who unlawfully banned e-cigarettes in 2009 and falsely claimed e-cigs were target marketed to youth, were hooking youth on nicotine, were gateways to cigarettes, don’t help smokers quit, and contain toxic chemicals) now advocates opioid harm reduction policies (but still opposes tobacco harm reduction products and policies)

More Junk Science, Propaganda and Lies

Christopher Snowdon: A junk history of tobacco harm reduction (rips UCSF)

Big Pharma funded ALA’s ‘State of Tobacco Control’ gives FDA an F for delaying Deeming Rule’s vapor sales ban to adults beyond 8/8/2018, gives federal government an F for not taxing low risk smokefree alternatives at same rate as deadly cigarettes.

ALA keeps lobbying states to protect cigarettes by criticizing States for not taxing, for not increasing minimum sales age, and for not spending more taxpayer money to demonize low risk smokefree alternatives and to subsidize Big Pharma cessation drugs.

Harvard Medical School still falsely claims vaping doesn’t help smokers quit smoking

NIH funded anti vaping activists (who deceitfully refer to “vaping” as “smoking”) falsely claim nicotine damages DNA and can cause cancer, but their headline and article demonizes lifesaving vapor products (not FDA approved Big Pharma nicotine products).

Lazy stupid news media hype false fear mongering claims by NIH funded vaping opponents

CRUK’s Michael Walsh: Headlines saying ‘vaping might cause cancer’ are wildly misleading

Steve Birr: Vape critics twist latest research to suggest e-cigarettes can cause cancer

FDA/NCI funded vaping opponents at Univ of Rochester claim e-liquid flavorings are toxic for humans based upon study of cells

Anti vaping activists at UCSD force mice to inhale massive amounts of vaping aerosol daily for 3-6 months, grow human epithelial cells in e-cig vapor, then irrationally conclude that vaping may harm humans.

Vapor prohibitionist David Bareham continues denying that e-cigarettes have helped smokers quit smoking, continues denying e-cigarettes are less harmful than cigarettes.


Bill Godshall
Executive Director
Smokefree Pennsylvania

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